The Avocado Gamble: Can New AI End the Ripeness Roulette for Vermonters?
Standing in the produce aisle, Vermonters have a Hobson's Choice: buy the rock-hard avocado that might ripen (or never will), or the one that feels soft but risks being a mushy, brown mess inside.
For years, Vermont avocado lovers have faced a frustrating culinary gamble. Standing in the produce aisle, they are confronted with a choice: buy the rock-hard avocado that might ripen in a week (or never), or the one that feels soft but risks being a mushy, brown-spotted mess inside. This isn’t just perception; it’s the tangible result of Vermont’s position at the very end of a long and complex global supply chain. But now, a new technology developed by university researchers—an AI-powered smartphone app—promises to give consumers the one thing they’ve never had: certainty.
The Green Mountain Gamble: Last in Line for Quality
The frustrating experience of buying a bad avocado in Vermont is a direct consequence of geography and logistics. A comprehensive analysis of the U.S. avocado market confirms that the entire U.S. Northeast is a low-consumption, high-price region for the fruit. According to retail data from the Hass Avocado Board, the Northeast has the highest average sales price for avocados in the nation, at $1.33 per fruit, and one of the lowest consumption rates.
This is because Vermont is at the “end of the line” of a supply chain that overwhelmingly begins in Central Mexico. According to USDA data, imports, primarily from Mexico, now account for 90% of all avocados consumed in the U.S. These avocados are trucked over the border in Texas and then begin a multi-day, cross-country journey.
By the time this delicate, perishable fruit reaches a Vermont supermarket, it has endured the longest transit time and the most handling of almost any product in the country. Post-harvest scientists explain that this long journey is fraught with peril. The fruit’s delicate ripening process, which only begins after it’s picked, can be irreversibly damaged by:
Chilling Injury: If temperatures drop too low in a refrigerated truck, the avocado’s flesh can turn grey and fail to ever ripen properly.
Heat Shock: Even a short time on a warm loading dock can stall the ripening process entirely, leading to the “hard and chalky” fruit that never softens.
Internal Bruising: Impacts from handling, invisible on the outside, manifest as ugly black patches as the fruit ripens.
This systemic issue, as detailed in the analysis “The Vermont Avocado Conundrum,” means the risk of failure is offloaded directly onto the consumer, who pays the nation’s highest price for the nation’s riskiest fruit.
A Digital Solution to a Physical Problem
This is precisely the problem researchers at Oregon State University (OSU) and Florida State University set out to solve. They have developed a smartphone-based artificial intelligence system that can accurately predict the ripeness and, crucially, the internal quality of an avocado simply by taking a picture.
According to a recent report in Current Research in Food Science, the research team trained their AI models using over 1,400 iPhone images of Hass avocados. The results are promising:
The system predicted firmness (a key sign of ripeness) with nearly 92% accuracy.
It predicted internal quality (fresh vs. rotten) with over 84% accuracy.
This new approach, according to OSU doctoral student In-Hwan Lee, uses deep learning to automatically capture a broad range of information, including “shape, texture, and spatial patterns,” making it far more robust than older methods.
Luyao Ma, an assistant professor at OSU who co-authored the study, was driven by a familiar frustration. As a frequent consumer of avocado toast, she was often disappointed by cutting into overripe fruit. “Our goal,” Ma stated, “was to create a tool that helps consumers and retailers make smarter decisions.”
Changing the Game from Farm to Kitchen
This technology could fundamentally change the avocado experience for Vermonters, empowering both consumers and the retailers they buy from.
For the first time, a Vermont shopper could use their phone to scan an avocado and get an accurate, data-driven prediction of its quality. The researchers specifically hope to develop the technology so consumers can “avoid the disappointment of cutting into one only to find dreaded brown spots.” This would effectively end the avocado gamble, allowing Vermonters to finally buy with confidence.
The benefits don’t stop at the checkout counter. Vermont retailers, who are just as much a victim of the long supply chain, could also use the tool. The research team notes that retailers could use the technology to “determine which avocados should be sold first based on ripeness,” helping them better manage their delicate inventory and reduce spoilage.
The system could even help fix the supply chain itself. At processing facilities, the AI could be used to sort and grade fruit. If the system “detects that a batch is more ripe,” the researchers suggest, “it could be shipped to a nearby retailer instead of one further away.” This simple, data-driven decision could one day spare batches of avocados from the long, damaging journey to the Northeast, ensuring a better-quality product arrives.
Beyond the Avocado: A Future with Less Waste
While this app could solve a uniquely Vermont-sized headache, the researchers behind it have a much larger target: food waste. According to their research, avocados are among the most wasted fruits globally, and about 30% of all food production is wasted.
This technology directly addresses that challenge, which is a national priority. The U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Environmental Protection Agency have set a goal to reduce national food waste by 50% by 2030.
By giving everyone in the supply chain—from the packer to the retailer to the end consumer—more and better information, tools like this AI app can ensure more food is eaten and less is thrown away. As Professor Ma said, “Avocados are just the beginning. This technology could be applied much more broadly, helping... make smarter decisions and reduce waste.”
For Vermonters, this means the end of the avocado gamble may be in sight. The power to pick the perfect avocado, once a matter of luck and frustration, may soon be in the palm of their hands.