Norwich University Scholar: Moldova’s Break With Moscow Raises New Fears of a Wider War

The author warns that Russia could use Transnistria as a pretext to destabilize Moldova or open a new axis of pressure against Odesa, Ukraine’s last major deep-water port.

In a new essay for Voices on Peace and War, Dr. James M. Deitch argues that **Moldova’s formal withdrawal from the Russian-led Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is not symbolic, but a potentially dangerous geopolitical turning point.

Deitch contends that Moscow views Moldova’s exit as the loss of one of its last institutional footholds in the post-Soviet space—and possibly as a trigger for escalation. Central to that risk is Transnistria, the Russian-backed breakaway region that has functioned as a frozen conflict and forward operating base since the early 1990s. The author warns that Russia could use Transnistria as a pretext to destabilize Moldova or open a new axis of pressure against Odesa, Ukraine’s last major deep-water port.

According to the essay, Russia’s strategic objective is not Moldova itself, but the potential to landlock Ukraine and reshape the war’s geometry by threatening Odesa from the west. Deitch argues that Russia’s logistical limits mean any such escalation would likely be short—on the order of a 45-day window—but still capable of producing long-term consequences for Ukraine, Moldova, and NATO’s southeastern flank.

The piece concludes that Western governments have repeatedly underestimated Russia’s willingness to exploit frozen conflicts and hybrid tactics, and that Moldova’s turn toward Europe represents a critical test. Russia’s relative weakness, Deitch argues, makes the moment more urgent—not less dangerous.

Read the full article here.