New Poll: Scott's 55% Re-Elect Boost Towers Over Dem Field in Vermont's Crossroads
For the last several years, state politics has been defined by the dynamic between Governor Scott and the Democratic legislature. If Scott decides not to run, that entire dynamic vanishes.
A new poll on Vermont politics recently made headlines, and the initial takeaway was simple: Governor Phil Scott is popular, and his potential Democratic challengers are not well known. According to a press release from the University of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Center about its October 2025 Green Mountain State Poll, a “Majority in Vermont Want Scott to Run Again in 2026, Uncertain About Pieciak and Clark.”
On the surface, this frames a familiar “horse race” narrative of a strong incumbent versus weak challengers. But these top-line numbers are only the beginning of the story. They mask a more complex and interesting reality about Vermont’s unique political landscape.
When you look behind the numbers, the poll doesn’t just show a popular governor; it explains his popularity by reflecting a political brand he has carefully built for years. And it doesn’t show a “weak” Democratic field; it shows two first-term officials who are in the normal, early stages of introducing themselves to the public—each representing a different potential future for their party.
First, A Look at the Poll Itself
Before we can understand the findings, we have to understand the tool that produced them. The Green Mountain State Poll was conducted by the UNH Survey Center, which, according to its website, is a long-standing academic research center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s Transparency Initiative.
According to UNH, the poll was conducted using a “probability-based web panel,” a modern method where participants are recruited using random sampling to ensure the pool is representative, and then they take surveys online.
But the most important detail often buried in poll reporting is the margin of error. While the exact margin for this poll was not in the initial press release, a statewide poll of this type might have a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. This is critical. It means that if a result is reported as 65 percent, the “true” number in the population is likely a range—somewhere between 61 percent and 69 percent. It’s a measure of statistical uncertainty that is built into every poll. Any report that omits this detail gives a false sense of precision.
The Scott Phenomenon: An Alliance of Opposites
The poll’s finding that Governor Phil Scott is popular is not new. But why has a Republican governor held such high approval in one of the most Democratic states in the nation? It is not an accident; it is the result of a deliberate and unique political brand.
According to Ballotpedia, Scott has successfully cultivated an identity as a “fiscal conservative and a social moderate.” He reinforces his conservative credentials by regularly clashing with the Democratic supermajority in the legislature over state spending and taxes. His recent mandate requiring state employees to return to the office, which, according to Seven Days, triggered significant pushback from the state employees’ union, is a prime example.
However, he has paired this with a very public and decisive break from the national Republican Party.
When President Donald Trump sought to deploy National Guard troops to American cities, Governor Scott called the action “unconstitutional,” according to the Valley News.
He backed this up with action, with WUSF reporting that he rejected a direct White House request to deploy Vermont’s National Guard to Washington, D.C.
According to Ballotpedia, he has also stated that he voted for Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in presidential elections.
This combination of fiscal conservatism at home and vocal opposition to the national GOP has inoculated him from the partisan warfare seen elsewhere. For many Vermonters, he is not “a Republican” but “Governor Scott.” His high approval rating is a direct reflection of this carefully maintained identity.
“Uncertainty” vs. Anonymity: Putting the Democratic Numbers in Context
This brings us to the other side of the poll’s headline: the “uncertainty” surrounding Democratic Treasurer Mike Pieciak and Democratic Attorney General Charity Clark.
The poll’s framing could imply this is a sign of political weakness. The reality is much simpler: it’s a sign of political normality. According to Wikipedia, both Pieciak and Clark were elected to their first terms and took office in January 2023. It is completely typical for officials in these less-visible, down-ballot offices to have low name recognition just two years into their jobs.
What the poll actually provides is a “baseline” measurement for two rising figures who represent very different models of leadership.
Mike Pieciak has built a public profile as a pragmatic, non-ideological technocrat. According to Wikipedia, he was previously the Commissioner of the Department of Financial Regulation, a role he was first appointed to by Democratic Governor Peter Shumlin and then reappointed to by Republican Governor Phil Scott. This bipartisan endorsement, combined with his data-driven presentations during the COVID-19 pandemic, has defined his image. As Treasurer, he has focused on broadly popular initiatives like the “Vermont Saves” public retirement program and investing in affordable housing, according to the Democratic Treasurers Association.
Charity Clark, in contrast, has forged a profile as a progressive activist. According to the Attorney General’s Office and the National Association of Attorneys General, she made history as the first woman elected Vermont’s Attorney General and has since initiated high-profile lawsuits against corporations like Monsanto and Meta. She has also been a vocal public defender of reproductive rights, joining multi-state legal challenges.
The “uncertainty” in the poll simply means that most Vermonters haven’t yet had a reason to form a strong opinion on Pieciak or Clark. The “horse race” has not yet begun.
What This Poll Really Means for Vermonters
This is why looking beyond the initial headlines is so important. This poll is not a definitive prediction of what will happen in 2026. Instead, it is a snapshot of an impending political realignment in Vermont.
For the last several years, state politics has been defined by the dynamic between Governor Scott and the Democratic legislature. If Scott, who has not yet announced his 2026 plans, decides not to run again, that entire dynamic vanishes.
The central political question in the state would no longer be a partisan clash. It would become an intra-party debate within the Democratic majority about what kind of leader it wants to put forward. The poll gives us an early glimpse of that choice: the technocratic, bipartisan model of Mike Pieciak or the progressive, activist model of Charity Clark.
For Vermonters, the “solution” is not to worry about the “uncertainty” in a poll taken a year before an election cycle truly begins. The opportunity is to use this time to look past the top-line numbers, learn about the emerging leaders in the state, and understand the fundamentally different approaches they represent. The real story is not “who is up and who is down” today. It is about the choice Vermonters will have to make about the future direction of their state.