After the Pandemic Rush, Many Newcomers Have Left Vermont Behind

A University of Vermont and Vermont Futures Project study found that only about one-third of pandemic-era arrivals expected to remain after life returned to normal.

After the Pandemic Rush, Many Newcomers Have Left Vermont Behind

When the COVID-19 pandemic upended American life in 2020, Vermont suddenly became one of the most sought-after destinations in the country. The Green Mountain State, long known for its stagnant or declining population, saw an unprecedented surge of new residents. Now, five years later, the picture looks very different: many of those who rushed in have since packed up and moved out, leaving Vermont with questions about what the boom—and the departure—means for its communities.

The Boom Years

In 2020, home purchases by out-of-state buyers jumped nearly 40 percent compared to the previous year, according to the Vermont Tax Department. Roughly 3,800 homes were sold to non-residents, up from about 2,750 in 2019. That spike accounted for more than a quarter of all residential transactions statewide.

Population statistics reflect the same story. From mid-2020 to mid-2021, Vermont experienced a net population gain of more than 14,000 people, according to the U.S. Census Bureau—the largest single-year increase in decades. United Van Lines even ranked Vermont as the number one inbound moving state in 2021.

The reasons were easy to understand. Vermont offered low COVID case counts, plenty of open space, and access to the outdoors at a time when urban life felt unsafe. Michael Pieciak, then part of the state’s pandemic response team, wondered aloud whether these new arrivals were committed residents or simply hedging their bets. “Are those people getting a second home? Are they getting a getaway home if something else happens?” he asked at the time.

A Short Stay for Many

The influx peaked quickly. By 2022, the surge had slowed to a trickle. Census data show Vermont gained only about 3,000 net residents from mid-2021 to mid-2022, compared with the 14,000 the year before. Roughly 26,000 people moved into the state that year, but about 23,000 moved away.

Survey research backs up the impression that Vermont was a temporary stop for many. A University of Vermont and Vermont Futures Project study found that only about one-third of pandemic-era arrivals expected to remain after life returned to normal. The rest were either undecided or already planning to leave.

The reasons are varied but familiar to longtime Vermonters. Some found the realities of long, cold winters and mud season too difficult. Others, once their employers called them back to offices, returned to the cities they had left. And for some, Vermont simply did not match the lifestyle they wanted.

Musician Myra Flynn, a Vermont native, described the experience of returning with her husband during the pandemic. They enjoyed being close to family but after a year and a half moved back to Los Angeles. “It just felt stagnant,” she said of life in Vermont, noting that professional opportunities and cultural diversity were limited compared to what they valued.

What Happened to the Homes?

Some of those who left sold their properties into a hot market that remained competitive until interest rates rose. Others kept their Vermont houses as second homes, renting them seasonally or using them for vacations. State officials have long been aware of Vermont’s high rate of second-home ownership, particularly in ski towns, and the pandemic added to that pattern.

By 2025, real estate agents reported that out-of-state buyers made up only 15 to 20 percent of the market, compared to more than a quarter at the height of the pandemic. “The frenzy has corrected itself,” said one realtor, pointing to higher inventory and fewer bidding wars.

A Balanced Legacy

For Vermont, the pandemic migration was both a windfall and a challenge. Towns saw new energy and schools in some areas welcomed families who might not otherwise have come. Property tax revenues benefited from higher home values. At the same time, the sudden demand squeezed an already tight housing market, making it harder for local families to buy.

The long-term legacy is still being sorted out. Vermont did hold on to thousands of new residents—some who discovered they truly do want to make a life in the Green Mountains. But many others, lured by the idea of a rural refuge, discovered the practical challenges of living here and moved on.

As one observer put it, Vermont remains “lovely on paper, and on a ski vacation.” But for those who came seeking an easy escape, the reality of daily life—shoveling snow, navigating mud season, and living far from urban amenities—proved too much.

The pandemic brought Vermont a rare spotlight and a population jolt. What’s left is a reminder that while the state’s appeal is real, it takes commitment to thrive here year-round. For those who stayed, that commitment is clear. For those who left, Vermont may remain a fond chapter, a second home, or simply a memory of a brief retreat during extraordinary times.